Bainimarama alleges Australian invasion plan

The military strongman of Fiji, Commodore Voreqe "Frank" Bainimarama, is alleging that the chief of the Australian Defense Forces threatened to send troops to Fiji if Bainimarama carried out his (eventually successful) plans for a military coup last November. Speaking to reporters from the Fiji Times newspaper, Bainimarama angrily countered claims made by Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer that Australia was "no threat" to Fiji.

"(Downer) was lying" claimed Bainimarama, "because in November the Chief of the Australian Defence Force Angus Houston called me in Sinai. He said 'do not do anything that would pit my soldiers against yours'. In military terms when you threaten someone it involves capability and intention so there was an intention to move troops to Fiji."

Downer dismissed the Commodore's claims, noting accurately (if a bit defensively), that "dictators often make false claims like these in order to build public support for their illegitimate regimes".

While this is true in the general sense, the question arises: why didn't Australia consider an intervention to prevent the overthrow of Fiji's democratically elected government? Bainimarama launched his coup after providing months of warning, and surely, Fiji's ostensibly loyal allies could have found some way to intervene, either militarily or diplomatically, to assure Bainimarama that he wouldn't get away with it.

Whatever the reason, Bainimarama on his part, appears to have calculated very accurately that none of the world's great powers would do anything more than raise an eyebrow when he made his move. And in typical fashion, he was exactly right. What, was Helen Clark going to stop him? Considering how she's presented herself as Bainimarama's staunchest foreign political foe, it might have occurred to her that New Zealand, being considerably more powerful and influential than Fiji, could have brought its own pressure to bear to prevent the coup.

So if I have any disgruntled military leaders in politically unstable countries reading, take heart: all the threats that "America won't stand for this" or "Europe would never let you do this" are so much puffery. I suspect you already know it, but don't take it from me - take it from Frank Bainimarama.

Bainimarama promises elections in 2009

The military dictator of Fiji, Commodore Voreqe "Frank" Bainimarama, today announced his intention to hold free elections in March of 2009. The date coincides with a deadline set by the European Union as a cutoff date for foreign aid if elections were not held.

Since seizing power in a coup d'etat last December, Bainimarama has been fairly cavalier in his dismissing the "outrage" and "concerns" about his dictatorship from western democracies, but apparently, Fiji really needs the money. Will the promised elections be free and fair? That's highly doubtful. The man ousted in December's coup, Laisenia Qarase, has been fighting an unsuccessful battle in the Fijian courts to declare the coup illegal. The Commodore, for his part, has invoked immunity granted by Fiji's executive figurehead, Ratu Josefa Iloilo. What's more, there seems little doubt that Qarase will not be permitted to run again in 2009, as Bainiamara's shake up of the government continues.

UPDATE: This site appears to be new, but is well worth a look for anyone interested in Bainimarama's hostile takeover of paradise: FijiCoup.org

The big man in paradise

The beautiful Polynesian nation of Fiji! The very name evokes images of sand, surf, palm trees and ... military coup d'etats. When Commodore Voreqe "Frank" Bainimarama launched his successful coup d'etat in December of 2006, he knew it would generate shock and disgust in international circles. He simply didn't care. As it stands now, he was probably onto something.

While the United States, Canada, and the European Union were all quick to denounce Bainimarama's naked grab for power, what were they going to do about it? Australia, Oceania's longtime policeman, also vociferously deplored the coup, but they declined to send a military force to intervene on the embattled deposed government's behalf. New Zealand followed suit, issuing statements "condemning" the coup, but also couldn't be bothered to send warships to Fiji to restore democracy. Needless to say, Commodore Bainimarama weathered the storm of indignant squawking and waited for them to forget about it so he could get down to business under the radar.

Nearly five months after taking power, Bainimarama has kept a tight leash on the press, and extended Fiji's state of emergency citing shadowy, and probably fictional, threats to state security. When his coup failed to gain the recognition of Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs, he simply dissolved the Great Council. Even the council's lone "chief for life" former dictator Sitiveni Rabuka was powerless to stop Bainimarama. Fiji is certainly no stranger to coup d'etats, but few in the West are aware of why they keep happening.

"We can argue on the legality of the government until the cows come home."

- Frank Bainimarama

Few in the west are aware of Fiji, and even fewer know about the political and social tensions that have led to four coups in the past 20 years. When the English absorbed Fiji into the British Empire in 1874, they realized that their occupation of Fiji would have to turn a profit to justify the costs of colonization. They also realized that there weren't enough native Fijians to employ for large scale commercial agricultural ventures, and what's more, forcing the natives to do so could result in a revolt the tiny British military presence in Fiji might not be able to suppress.

The lack of labor proved to be a somewhat serious impediment to British goals to turn Fiji into a cash crop economy based on large scale sugarcane plantation farming. The British, however, hit on a solution to this problem by bringing thousands of indentured servants from British India to Fiji. The British relied on their labor to make owning Fiji profitable, and preserve their relationship with the native Fijian rulers . Problem solved! The Indians provided the labor, the Fijian chiefs tolerated the British presence, and the British made Fiji a self-financing possession. Over time, the number of Indians in Fiji increased, both because of transport from India, and from Indians born in Fiji. By the time Fiji gained independence from Great Britain, Indians in Fiji comprised a little more than half of the population. Naturally, as the majority, Fiji's Indians strove for a measure of political participation relative to the size of their population and contribution to Fijian society.

And this is where things started to become a bit difficult.

1987 coup leader Sitiveni Rabuka

Fearing that urban Indians would dominate the more rural native Fijians politically, a compromise solution was worked out where legislative power was allotted along ethnic lines. The prime minister, however, was a native Fijian. That is until an Indian prime minister was elected in 1987, at which point, the aforementioned Sitiveni Rabuka, himself a native Fijian, launched a pair of coups to depose the new prime minister. Rabuka called the coup a preemptive assault against discrimination against ethnic Fijians, but more to the point, the coup preserved the political supremacy of native Fijians.

2000 coup leader George Speight

The scenario repeated itself in 2000, when Indian Fijian Mahendra Chaudhry was elected Prime Minister, only to be overthrown in a bizarre coup by a native Fijian nationalist named George Speight. Speight, who claimed to have acted preemptively to prevent the oppression of the now majority native Fijians against the tyranny of the now minority Indian Fijians, held Prime Minister Chaudrhy and 35 other government ministers hostage for nearly two months. Speight lost control of the government when, who else?, Commodore Bainimarama took control of the government, declared martial law, and lured Speight out into the open with a false amnesty pledge. Commodore Bainimarama appointed a native Fijian Prime Minister, Laisenia Qarase, who remained in power from 2000 until his ouster last December by, yes, that's right, Commodore Bainimarama.

4 coups in 20 years isn't a sterling track record, but Commodore Bainimarama is willing to bet that the same countries that are "outraged" now will forget all about it sometime this year, and they may be right. The economic cornerstones of Fiji aren't seriously being threatened, and the Commodore himself isn't a brutal dictator in the mold of Saddam Hussein or the like. He's simply another one of a long line of military leaders who covets power, and even in paradise, they're a dime a dozen.

Who's hot? Who's not?

HOT: Frank Bainimarama (Fiji)

Since seizing power in a military coup last December, Commodore Frank Bainimarama endured a lot of indignant outrage from world leaders about his "usurpation of democracy", his "contempt for constitutional norms" and so on. As he was doubtlessly aware, everyone stopped caring a month or so later, and he's still in charge. Has he set a timetable for a return to democracy? No, but he's promised that there won't be elections for "at least three years". The press is scared, but Dictators of the World is convinced that the sky is the limit for Commodore Bainimarama's fledgling dictatorship.


NOT HOT: Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe)

2007 may finally be the year when the 83 year old Mugabe finally loses his grip once and for all. Oh, he can handle political opponents like Morgan Tsvangirai and 61 year old Archbishop Pious Ncube. He's also not losing any sleep over the usual huffy denunciations from the likes of British Prime Minister Tony Blair or American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. What are they going to do, anyway? Write a snarky letter? Complain to the United Nations?

No. Comrade Bob is currently soiling himself over rumors that even the Zimbabwean military and the party he once controlled with an iron fist have had enough of the economic ruin Mugabe has visited upon Zimbabwe. The rest of the ZANU-PF leadership has finally decided to start a power struggle with Mugabe, and rumors of a coup d'etat abound. Let's face it: Mugabe's looking like he's toast.

Saddam's last stand, and Fiji's new coup

My cup runneth over! With all the news about Castro, Chavez and Pinochet, I haven't even had time to ponder Saddam Hussein's last ditch attempt to avoid the gallows. Curiously, Saddam showed poor clock management, using less than the allowable 30 days to file a formal appeal of his death sentence conviction. Could the butcher of Baghdad be looking to get it all over with?

While I was pondering this, the government of Fiji has been overthrown in a military coup d'etat, the second coup d'etat for the island nation in the past 10 years. In a move condemned (by rote) by Western politicians, the Prime Minister is under house arrest, the Fijian parliament has been dissolved, and the capital is bracing for the imposition of martial law.

Could former Fijian dictator Sitiveni Rabuka (pictured above at left) be working behind the scenes? Rabuka, who appeared to have been mulling a return to politics, had earlier expressed dissatisfaction with the present Fijian government. As 2006 proved to be a good comeback year for a number of dictators around the globe, we have no doubt that the timing is certainly right for Rabuka to entertain thoughts of a return to power.